On demographic doom


I. Curb your Pessimism

So the demographics look very depressing. Spandrell has some statistical analyses. So does Audacious Epigone. Whites are reproducing below replacement levels. Muslims are reproducing above replacement levels. Blacks are reproducing explosively above replacement levels. Many blacks and Muslims already live in the West, many more blacks and Muslims are coming to the West. Leftists argue that Muslim and black fertility rate drops once they are 3rd+ generation immigrants, but Jim much more convincingly argues that fertility rate is tied to female emancipation, and blacks and muslims are increasingly wary of female emancipation. Obvious conclusion is obvious: in a couple of decades, whites will be minorities in their own countries.¹

That is depressing.

Yet there is no reason to stay depressed.

The problem with whites overly obsessed with saving the white race is that they are similar to Greenpeace activists wanting to save the panda; if a race on the brink of extinction does not procreate, it is meant to go extinct. That is the simple truth.

We don’t really care about an abstract concept called ‘the white race’. We care about ourselves and our family. We only care about the white race insofar the white race facilitates peace and prosperity for ourselves and our family.

Virtue-signalling that you care about the white race is a lot better than virtue-signalling that you hate the white race, but it is still just virtue signalling. The proof, as always, is in the pudding. How many kids you havin’?

Those with many kids have their genes survive. Those that don’t, don’t. The future belongs to those who show up. Virtue-signal all you want, but in the end a simple head-count of your family suffices. Gnon does not care about the rest.


II. Crunching some numbers
¹ How many decades though? I am both too lazy and distrusting of the statistics to do a thorough analysis. But some quick statistics on the Netherlands show the following:

Screen Shot 2017-06-13 at 10.41.13

Keep in mind I distrust the statistics. 1 – illegals are not taken into account and 2 – 3rd gen immigrants disappear into the original Dutch pool. So lets add, I don’t know, an additional 6% to immigrants in 2016. Which makes 70% – 30%. Compared to only 87% – 13% in 1996 and likely compared to, what, 95 % – 5% in 1950, the change is enormous.

Now it is non-western immigrants (muslims and blacks) that are the scariest. In 2016 they are up to 12%, but I am pretty sure the illegals are also entirely in that category. So say 18%. More than doubled in 20 years. That is alarming.

Back to the original question: when will Dutch whites be a minority in their own country? Perhaps slightly slower than other European countries. But at the current rate, perhaps not much slower:

Screen Shot 2017-06-13 at 11.01.13

This is projecting current trends. I assume a growth rate of 180% in 20 years for non-western immigrants. If that trend holds up, whites in Netherlands will be a minority in about 50-60 years. That seems to be the way the cookie is crumbling.


III. PS
By the way, I can’t help but be amazed at the lightning-pace of the transformation. When my grandparents were young, about half as much people were living in the Netherlands than do now. And very little non-Western immigrants. I don’t think their generation realises how things have changed, how things are changing.

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10 thoughts on “On demographic doom

  1. The only cause for optimism is that young, high-IQ white males (at least in the US) are far, far more into lifting weights and martial arts than when I was a kid. This is far more psychologically healthy than NRA-style gun fetishism. But Wilson’s interventionism likely doomed the West.

  2. this assuming, rather unrealistically imo, that 1) Europe is not gonna be a hellhole of civil war in 30-years time and 2) white people don’t just, you know, get tired of the whole Blut und Boden thing and just flee to better parts of the world (Australia and New Zealand, who knows).

    once the welfare state collapses, nobody will be immigrating much (“no benefits, and the weather is terrible”)

        1. Slightly, yes, but mostly they just are very unaware of what is happening in the world.

          Your average Dutch thinks the EU has some problems but it will be fine, that Trump is an idiot but Americans are crazy anyway and that immigration has some problems but really not as bad as some raycists on the internet claim.

          Once shit hits the fan people might flee. But most Dutch like the soil they live on.

  3. First section is a matter of course. I think everyone knows non-breeders don’t have a future. It’s also perfectly valid to decry the decline of a society without being party to it. There is nothing irrational about preserving either Pandas or Dutch people. Evolutionary pressures include the desire of tribes to survive. Saying Gnon works to destroy everything that isn’t breeding the most is clearly false. Without western intervention, evolutionary pressure would have held the population of Africa to 1% of it’s current counting.

    On timelines and transformation: I hold to the observable phenomenon over the statistician’s projection. It will not take total foreign eclipse for “whites,” (European ethnic groups) to lose control over their nation-states. They have already largely lost control to various trans-national interests. When a coalition of non-natives can be constructed that allows simple control over most of the nation-state it will be a notable shift. I suspect this will happen when voting-age Muslims reach the 30-40% mark in the most vulnerable European nation-states.

    In two decades, most of Western Europe and the United States will have political dilemmas that are insurmountable. Under those circumstances “whites,” outside the heir-heiress class are going to be at-best a seriously disadvantaged plurality. At worst you will have proto-South-African legislation laying the ground-work for expulsion, expropriation, and extermination.

    I think Fifth Political Theory has made the best case when they say various European tribes must begin to think of themselves as a conscious diaspora, because by the time this generation are of later middle-age and by the time children born today are adults, they will be well on their way to becoming a true diaspora of “western,” peoples that are absolutely not safe to remain in their ancestral homelands.

    1. > Saying Gnon works to destroy everything that isn’t breeding the most is clearly false. Without western intervention, evolutionary pressure would have held the population of Africa to 1% of it’s current counting.

      Yes, breeding is just one part of Gnon’s equation. But it is a critical part.

      > I think Fifth Political Theory has made the best case when they say various European tribes must begin to think of themselves as a conscious diaspora.

      I hear some European voices saying this. But few. Nationalism is stronger. Right now I think the umbrella term is Alt-Right.

      1. >I hear some European voices saying this. But few. Nationalism is stronger. Right now I think the umbrella term is Alt-Right.

        I want to agree with this, but seeing Europe in its current state leads me to side with 5PT too. Nationalism is stronger than it has been in the post-war era, yet it isn’t nascent enough to regain political power before the demographic shift makes a dominant nationalist party impossible. I think Mac is correct in estimating that much less than half the electorate being non-Euros is sufficient to permanently stymie political recovery. The Alt-Right is channeling a lot of voices but they’re voices from across the Western World. Inside of individual Western nations, they are far from influential or numerous enough to court real power.

        And realistically speaking there is no amount of breeding that can dig Europe or America out of their holes. The absolute number disparity between the fertile women of the third world vs the fertile women of the third world is too massive.

  4. Even if, especially if, you have many white children you will want other whites to have children. The more there are the better are the chances you will someday have white great-grandchildren. Nobody can survive alone.

    So, no it is not empty signaling when a father encourages his white neighbors to have (more) children. It’s is behaviour that helps his own line to surrive.

    1. You are of course correct. I am acting out against the internet, where every man acts only slighly less like he is a father of 9 sons than a bachelor acts like he has weekly sex with HB9s.

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