I. Curb your Pessimism
So the demographics look very depressing. Spandrell has some statistical analyses. So does Audacious Epigone. Whites are reproducing below replacement levels. Muslims are reproducing above replacement levels. Blacks are reproducing explosively above replacement levels. Many blacks and Muslims already live in the West, many more blacks and Muslims are coming to the West. Leftists argue that Muslim and black fertility rate drops once they are 3rd+ generation immigrants, but Jim much more convincingly argues that fertility rate is tied to female emancipation, and blacks and muslims are increasingly wary of female emancipation. Obvious conclusion is obvious: in a couple of decades, whites will be minorities in their own countries.¹
That is depressing.
Yet there is no reason to stay depressed.
The problem with whites overly obsessed with saving the white race is that they are similar to Greenpeace activists wanting to save the panda; if a race on the brink of extinction does not procreate, it is meant to go extinct. That is the simple truth.
We don’t really care about an abstract concept called ‘the white race’. We care about ourselves and our family. We only care about the white race insofar the white race facilitates peace and prosperity for ourselves and our family.
Virtue-signalling that you care about the white race is a lot better than virtue-signalling that you hate the white race, but it is still just virtue signalling. The proof, as always, is in the pudding. How many kids you havin’?
Those with many kids have their genes survive. Those that don’t, don’t. The future belongs to those who show up. Virtue-signal all you want, but in the end a simple head-count of your family suffices. Gnon does not care about the rest.
II. Crunching some numbers
¹ How many decades though? I am both too lazy and distrusting of the statistics to do a thorough analysis. But some quick statistics on the Netherlands show the following:
Keep in mind I distrust the statistics. 1 – illegals are not taken into account and 2 – 3rd gen immigrants disappear into the original Dutch pool. So lets add, I don’t know, an additional 6% to immigrants in 2016. Which makes 70% – 30%. Compared to only 87% – 13% in 1996 and likely compared to, what, 95 % – 5% in 1950, the change is enormous.
Now it is non-western immigrants (muslims and blacks) that are the scariest. In 2016 they are up to 12%, but I am pretty sure the illegals are also entirely in that category. So say 18%. More than doubled in 20 years. That is alarming.
Back to the original question: when will Dutch whites be a minority in their own country? Perhaps slightly slower than other European countries. But at the current rate, perhaps not much slower:
This is projecting current trends. I assume a growth rate of 180% in 20 years for non-western immigrants. If that trend holds up, whites in Netherlands will be a minority in about 50-60 years. That seems to be the way the cookie is crumbling.
By the way, I can’t help but be amazed at the lightning-pace of the transformation. When my grandparents were young, about half as much people were living in the Netherlands than do now. And very little non-Western immigrants. I don’t think their generation realises how things have changed, how things are changing.